By WILLIAM MAYER
September 20, 2012 - San Francisco, CA - PipeLineNews.org - We have discussed at length the series of actions [and the lack of action where required] taken by this administration which are the cause of the conflagration now engulfing the Middle East. Yes you are reading that correctly; Barack Obama has brought this crisis about by his own hand.
As a result the U.S. is facing a national security challenge which has no parallel at least this side of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.
All eyes necessarily shift to Iran, whose hand the administration has made significantly stronger.
Some random speculation driven largely by two developments:
Item 1: U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice, on ABC News, Sunday morning, "What happened this week in Cairo, in Benghazi and many other parts of the region was a result, a direct result, of a heinous and offensive video that was widely disseminated, that the U.S. government had nothing to do with, which we have made clear is reprehensible and disgusting."A few days later the administration had to admit that it had not told the truth in the matter and that the Benghazi outrage was a planned terrorist attack probably attributable to al-Qaeda.
Irrespective of now being a proven liar, the incompetent Ms. Rice's statement is important because it reveals in an encapsulated form, the operative mindset of the Obama administration and the strategy behind its "Muslim reset."
Team Obama's ideological cant on dealing with the "Muslim world," endorses a conceptual framework whereby the heavy hand of an abusive and intimidating central government is used to enforce Shari'a compliance in order to avoid riling the ever so sensitive Muslims to the point of violence.
A result of this policy the administration is trampling such cherished and Constitutionally enumerated rights as the freedom of political speech. You can't have it both ways, either you affirm the concept of inalienable natural rights endowed by a Creator, including those outlined in the Bill of Rights, or you do them violence.
Thus Team Obama has intentionally brought itself intellectually into line with the Organization of Islamic Cooperation's long standing effort to adopt binding [Muslim centric] legal sanctions against "blasphemy" or "defamation of religion" such as "insulting the Prophet" and in a greater sense [according to the authoritative and universally accepted codification of Shari'a, "The Reliance of the Traveler"] just about any activity that might anger or hurt the feelings of Muslims. [Props to Tom Trento of The United West for that observation]
Note: The Obama administration especially as represented by its Secretary of State, Clinton, has worked closely to assuage the OIC which is an association of 57 Muslim nations, most of which aspire - to a greater or lesser extent - to governing in according to the Shari'a and forcing non-member, non-Muslim states to do the same. Despite claims that it doesn't support the OIC's radical "fix," Team Obama is engaged in an ongoing process whereby the kernel of this concept can surreptitiously become part of American law, a stealth operation.
Only a dullard would fail to recognize the long term harm self censorship would do to freedom of expression and the First Amendment.
Item 2: A significant naval taskforce of combined U.S./Brit forces is engaged in establishing a substantial presence in the Persian Gulf. One must search hard in the MSM to find any coverage of this development.
Certainly three Nimitz class carriers [and a requisite number of support vessels] represent a huge hammer in the Gulf region, but this fleet is also a tempting target, with Iran perhaps already having acquired technologies which could prove the fleet vulnerable to a degree.
We know that they have been trying to obtain electric submarines from Germany and it is being reported that they have already deployed a few Soviet built subs.
Complicating matters over the escalating situation [largely going unreported] is that the U.S. public has been conditioned to have a very low tolerance for casualties of any kind. This expectation has been stoked by successive administration [Obama is not remarkable here, he is acting in accord with his predecessors] all of which pursue a path wherein avoidance of military casualties ranks quite high.
The impact of this is that in major military confrontations such as the one in which we might soon become engaged, our opponents know that they will reap huge propaganda rewards for inflicting even relatively minor, non strategic, losses, perhaps severely damaging or sinking a U.S. naval vessel early in the process.
This in itself is seen by powers such as Iran as being provocative, seeing the tremendous upside to whatever mischief it can bring to bear. Iran knows there is zero prospect of this president going "Bush" on them, invading the country or carrying out a sustained campaign of all out confrontation.
The degree of public squeamishness and our CIC's natural predisposition towards inaction in military affairs places great limitations on what the U.S. military is willing or even can do by way of response, knowing that the public is simply not ready to accept hundreds or thousands of casualties in a short period of time.
By contrast our chief antagonist in the area, Iran, already has a history of brutality and total disregard for life. Witness its use of unarmed children, sending them out to a sure and gruesome death during the Iran-Iraq war [while indoctrinating these kids into believing that they will become heroes and martyrs] as human minesweepers thus clearing the pathway for an assault or other tactical movement of forces.
Unless the administration is willing to fully commit to a general war with Iran then sending this American armada could prove an empty gesture.
Given Team Obama's performance over three years, will the Iranians take his threats seriously, even if they are real?
Such a force is to a certain degree muscle bound, it doesn't lend itself to a process of being ratcheted up slowly if action commences, and the idea at this point, with the ME and N. Africa in flames should be deterrence not confrontation unless the goal is the complete destruction of Iran's nuke infrastructure.
As a result it's either a "go," or "no go" situation - not a lot of room around the margins to maneuver or for nuance - something an inexperienced president might find very useful.
Obama has already proven himself to be less than decisive and not comfortable with projecting, let alone using major military force. One hopes given his inexperience and the incompetents which surround him the administration will not overcompensate.
The looming election complicates matters which might hasten taking ill considered actions. It's hard to argue that the deployment of the naval taskforce is not in some part designed to court Jewish voters who are abandoning him over their correct perception that Mr. Obama has thrown in with the radical Palestinians.
In this effort Mr. Obama, a rank amateur and has little in the way of resources to draw upon in hot-war crisis mode. His national security team is a joke, his State Department is inept, and the Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton is dumber than the lint in her husband's pockets.
There are few if any professionals here who might provide experience, David Petraeus being a sterling exception - but does anyone listen to him? The few experts who could offer solid and much needed counsel are ignored. Exhibit "A" here being the fact that Obama has attended less than half of his national security briefings, though we understand that in the face of withering criticism of him over this revelation, he is now spending more time with his national security briefers.
We don't see Israel attacking Iran before the election. With the US and the Brits operating this aggressively an element of surprise has been eliminated. Best guess here is that the Israeli command structure is not happy with saber rattling from someone with no experience in the world of international power politics when the Jewish state's existence is in such peril.
Iran the major party stirring the pot in the ME conflagration, has a strategic interest in keeping that fire burning which automatically elevates the matter to the level of a multi front threat.
If Israel strikes, U.S. and Western interests will get hit hard in North and E. Africa. Egypt will likely side with Iran in any confrontation, Morsi's government has already grown very friendly with the Mullocracy. [keep in mind that Egyptian authorities recently released Ayman al-Zawahiri's brother Mohammed from confinement. Of note: upon his release Mohammed al-Zawahiri stated the act was, "one of the most important fruits of the blessed revolution."] Additionally it is estimated that there are upwards of 1,200-15,000 terrorists already in Northern Sinai who are reportedly well funded [by Iran] and anti-missile batteries are also thought to be in the area.
Ahh yes...the Arab Spring...or as jihad scholar Andy Bostom quips, "Springtime for Araby."
In that sense Egypt is already on the verge of becoming a de-facto Islamist revolutionary state.
Al Shabaab is on the move in Somalia and bleeding into Kenya. Nigeria with its oil riches is a huge sitting duck. Remember the Islamist enemy employs a strategy of asymmetrical warfare, they can tie up a huge amount of American/Western resources with relatively little exposure.
One must hope that if this comes to pass that Obama is ready for Iran's violent response, which could be severe, including attacks by domestic Hezbollah cells against the United States which will come out of U.S. mosques. That is a fact, they already have a presence on these shores as well as in Mexico [where they have hooked up with the drug cartels and syndicates] and Canada. Hugo Chavez has military contracts [as well as with China and Russia] with Iran and has allowed Hezbollah to establish forward operating bases in Northern Venezuela, where they freely intermingle with those in the cocaine trade.
[Of note here: members of Hezbollah and/or the Quds Force were involved last October year ago in a plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the U.S., see - Is America's view of Iran and Hezbollah dangerously out of date?]
Any U.S. action could serve as the go sign for Hezbollah to strike domestically and both Hezbollah and Hamas to take action against Israel. There are many reports that in the last few months that Hezbollah has markedly increased the number of missiles it has to deploy, of course with the blessing of Iran..
The spectacle of this president attempting to wield the "Big Stick" under current circumstances might easily be interpreted by our enemies as a sign of desperation.
None of this would have been necessary if president Obama hadn't started down this path in 2009. Since then he has consistently sent a message of weakness and outright dhimmitude which to the ME thugs is not ameliorative.
The onset of a shooting war will likely cement a partnership of convenience [perhaps not long lasting] between Iran and Iraq. Iraq has already turned in upon itself via religious purging of Sunnis. Hell, the legislature there just put out a warrant for the arrest of its Sunni V.P, who is now wisely out of the country.
If war comes, the Taliban [which has grown tremendously in strength and audacity] could overrun U.S. bases is Afghanistan with the possible exception of Bagram. Witness that Camp Leatherneck's security perimeter was apparently rather easily very recently breached by the Taliban.
Action is also possible in Pakistan which houses probably 60-75 nuclear weapons...the Islamists' Holy Grail.
Will the Pak's increasingly Islamist government [which after all hosted Osama bin-Laden within rock throwing distance of its equivalent of West Point for years, then put the gentleman who fingered the terror leader in jail for life for his "crimes"] be at all motivated to prevent the Haqqani Network terrorists from taking control of the Pak's nuke stockpile?
Does Team Obama have a rapid strike force ready to prevent this?
One wonders, despite the matter's critical nature.
In such a conflict it's impossible to predict what either China or Russia would do.
China could conceivably pretend to sit it out as far as the U.S. is [offering assistance behind the scenes to the Islamists - keep in mind that the ChiComs hold huge amounts of U.S. paper]. It's possible that China could use the onset of hostilities to make it's long planned grab for Taiwan, with which we have a mutual defense treaty...we would legally be compelled to respond, thus bringing us into direct conflict with a strengthened Chinese military machine.
These are some of the dangers which now loom.
We hope that this CIC is willing to let Ayatollah Ali Khamenei know that if things indeed do go South, he will see one last, very warm sunrise.
It's hard to believe that the Mullocracy is at this point has much fear of the suit of bones sitting in the Oval Office.
We are going to end the speculation there, the pot having been sufficiently stirred.
©2012 PipeLineNews.org LLC., William Mayer. All rights reserved.