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Militant Islam Monitor > Articles > Iran calling the shots in Mideast war - Hezbollah emerges as only force in Lebanon

Iran calling the shots in Mideast war - Hezbollah emerges as only force in Lebanon

July 20, 2006

http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/lead-player-is-behind-the-scenes/2006/07/20/1153166517573.html?page=2

Iran is determined to cause as much trouble for the United States as it can, writes Peter Hartcher.

IF YOU thought the latest Middle East crisis was just another in the endless cycle of Arabs and Jews killing each other, you're wrong. There is a telltale sign that there is a major new development underlying this bloodshed and mayhem.

That sign: the world's Arab powers have not launched their customary tirades against Israel. Indeed, astonishingly, the collective voice of the Arab world, the 22-nation Arab League, has criticised the Arab actor Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim group that is attacking Israel from Lebanese territory.

The Arab League blamed Hezbollah for "unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts" in kidnapping two Israeli soldiers and launching missiles at Israel. It is the first time that the Arab League has criticised any Arab force engaged in a war against Israel.

What is going on here?

"The governments and elites in the Arab world are in fear of Iran - it is Iran that is setting the pace here, it is the Iranians fomenting this fighting," says a prominent analyst, Daniel Pipes, director of the pro-Israel Middle East Forum in the US.

And a man who almost always disagrees with him, Hussein Ibish, on this point is in complete accord.

"The reaction of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the other Arab states has a lot to do with their concerns at the growing power of Iran in the region," says Ibish, a leading pro-Palestinian analyst and executive director of the Foundation for Arab-American Leadership in Washington.

What is the Iran angle in this fighting? Hezbollah, or party of God, is a proxy of Iran. It was set up by Lebanese Shiite Muslims, a minority in Lebanon, in 1982 with Iran's help to fight against the Israeli incursion of that year.

Hezbollah's leaders are trained by Iran and armed by Iran. The military shocks that Israel received this week at the hands of Hezbollah are stamped "made in Iran".

For instance, Israel had no idea that Hezbollah had radar-guided Silkworm missiles until one of its warships was struck this week. The Israeli ship did not even have its missile warning system switched on. The missile was made in China, bought and modified by Iran, and supplied to Hezbollah.

So was another surprise, the long-range missile that Hezbollah fired into the Israeli port city of Haifa, which until now was thought to be beyond its reach.

Hezbollah is a terrorist group with a long list of atrocities to its name and about 1000 trained fighters, but it is also much more. It is a political party which won one-fifth of the seats in the Lebanese parliament. It has a minister in the Lebanese cabinet. It runs its own TV station. It operates a network of social services to some 250,000 people in southern Lebanon. It's the second-biggest employer in the country.

The United Nations Security Council has demanded that Hezbollah disarm, but the group is not interested in complying and the Lebanese Government is too weak to confront the country's last private militia.

And although John Howard said this week that Hezbollah is "the plaything of Syria", there is more to it. True, Iran has to deal through Syria to supply Hezbollah. Syria could choke off the resupply of Hezbollah if it so wished. But it is Iran that animates and arms Hezbollah.

And because it's a proxy of the Iranians - who are not Arabs but Persians - that the Arab governments of the region are so suspicious of it.

Incidentally, Hamas, the terrorists-cum-politicians who now run the Palestinian territories, the group which took the first Israeli soldier prisoner in the present crisis, is also very closely connected to Iran.

Why is Hezbollah making provocative attacks on Israel? Iran sees itself as the region's great power. Iran is feeling under threat, and, at the same time, feeling a surge in its own potential power. It feels under threat because the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have brought American forces onto its frontiers.

And it is this sense of vulnerability that is helping stir the thrill of its own potential power. Yes, the invasion of Iraq did bring the US uncomfortably close to Iran, but it also removed the threat posed by Saddam Hussein, a trenchant enemy.

The invasion of Iraq also gave new urgency to the Iranian project to acquire the nuclear bomb, an act of insurance lest the US decides to move against another of the "axis of evil" states. In the interim, however, the chaos in Iraq and America's apparent helplessness has tempted Iran to think of the US as being weak.

And the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President has reinvigorated the revolutionary fervour of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

As Pipes puts it: "The apocalyptic mood in Iran is an important part of the psychology - if we win, we win, and if we lose, the Mahdi, the end of times, is coming anyway. In this sort of febrile mood, it's win-win for Iran" to pursue an aggressive foreign policy.

Wherever you look at the major crises in the Middle East at the moment, Iran is at the centre. It is defying the world by persisting with its nuclear project; it is fuelling the insurgency in Iraq; it is animating Hezbollah's attacks on Israel; and it is endorsing, at the very least, Hamas's policy of confronting Israel.

Ibish argues that Iran is very deliberately flexing its muscles, and chose to push Hezbollah to move against Israel just before last weekend's Group of Eight summit, where Iran's nuclear defiance was to be discussed.

"Iran is demonstrating the new scope of its influence," he says. "It's saying, if the US wants to confront us over our nuclear program, we have a lot of influence and here is a little display."

And when the violence across the Lebanese border has played itself out, the newly assertive Iran will still be there.

The United Nations Security Council has demanded that Hezbollah disarm, but the group is not interested in complying and the Lebanese Government is too weak to confront the country's last private militia.

And although John Howard said this week that Hezbollah is "the plaything of Syria", there is more to it. True, Iran has to deal through Syria to supply Hezbollah. Syria could choke off the resupply of Hezbollah if it so wished. But it is Iran that animates and arms Hezbollah.

And because it's a proxy of the Iranians - who are not Arabs but Persians - that the Arab governments of the region are so suspicious of it.

Incidentally, Hamas, the terrorists-cum-politicians who now run the Palestinian territories, the group which took the first Israeli soldier prisoner in the present crisis, is also very closely connected to Iran.

Why is Hezbollah making provocative attacks on Israel? Iran sees itself as the region's great power. Iran is feeling under threat, and, at the same time, feeling a surge in its own potential power. It feels under threat because the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have brought American forces onto its frontiers.

And it is this sense of vulnerability that is helping stir the thrill of its own potential power. Yes, the invasion of Iraq did bring the US uncomfortably close to Iran, but it also removed the threat posed by Saddam Hussein, a trenchant enemy.

The invasion of Iraq also gave new urgency to the Iranian project to acquire the nuclear bomb, an act of insurance lest the US decides to move against another of the "axis of evil" states. In the interim, however, the chaos in Iraq and America's apparent helplessness has tempted Iran to think of the US as being weak.

And the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President has reinvigorated the revolutionary fervour of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

As Pipes puts it: "The apocalyptic mood in Iran is an important part of the psychology - if we win, we win, and if we lose, the Mahdi, the end of times, is coming anyway. In this sort of febrile mood, it's win-win for Iran" to pursue an aggressive foreign policy.

Wherever you look at the major crises in the Middle East at the moment, Iran is at the centre. It is defying the world by persisting with its nuclear project; it is fuelling the insurgency in Iraq; it is animating Hezbollah's attacks on Israel; and it is endorsing, at the very least, Hamas's policy of confronting Israel.

Ibish argues that Iran is very deliberately flexing its muscles, and chose to push Hezbollah to move against Israel just before last weekend's Group of Eight summit, where Iran's nuclear defiance was to be discussed.

"Iran is demonstrating the new scope of its influence," he says. "It's saying, if the US wants to confront us over our nuclear program, we have a lot of influence and here is a little display."

And when the violence across the Lebanese border has played itself out, the newly assertive Iran will still be there.

Peter Hartcher is the Herald's international editor.

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